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Yield curve prediction for the strategic investor

Author

Listed:
  • Bernadell, Carlos
  • Coche, Joachim
  • Nyholm, Ken

Abstract

This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for the full yield-curve distribution under different assumptions on the future state of the economy. On the technical side, our model represents a regimeswitching expansion of Diebold and Li (2003) and hence rests on the Nelson-Siegel functional form set in state-space form. We allow transition probabilities in the regimeswitching set-up to depend on observed macroeconomic variables and thus create a link between the macro economy and the shape and location of yield curves and their time-series evolution. The model is successfully applied to US yield curve data covering the period from 1953 to 2004 and encouraging out-of-sample results are obtained, in particular at forecasting horizons longer than 24 months. JEL Classification: C51, C53, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2005. "Yield curve prediction for the strategic investor," Working Paper Series 472, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005472
    Note: 443961
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp472.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    2. Carlo A. Favero & Stefano W. Giglio, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," Working Papers 312, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Weißbach, Rafael & Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav & Zimmermann, Guido, 2006. "The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast," Technical Reports 2006,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    4. Ken Nyholm & Riccardo Rebonato, 2008. "Long-horizon yield curve projections: comparison of semi-parametric and parametric approaches," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1597-1611.
    5. Arjan Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg, 2011. "A Liability-Relative Drawdown Approach to Pension Asset Liability Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gautam Mitra & Katharina Schwaiger (ed.), Asset and Liability Management Handbook, chapter 14, pages 352-382, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    7. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59.
    8. Adriana Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    9. Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2006. "A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets," Working Paper Series 641, European Central Bank.
    10. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Chiara Sabelli & Michele Pioppi & Luca Sitzia & Giacomo Bormetti, 2014. "Multi-curve HJM modelling for risk management," Papers 1411.3977, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    12. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, September.
    14. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    15. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regime switching; scenario analysis; state space model; yield curve distributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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