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Euroisation in Serbia

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Author Info

  • Alexandre Chailloux

    (IMF)

  • Franziska Ohnsorge

    (EBRD)

  • David Vavra

    (OGResearch)

Abstract

Euroisation in Serbia is rooted in a long history of macroeconomic instability. Extreme inflation volatility has undermined trust in the dinar and discouraged dinar savings. At the same time, an abundant supply of foreign capital inflows has provided easy access to foreign currency lending at low interest rates in an environment of perceived exchange rate stability – a perception reinforced by the choice of exchange rate regime. As a result, both the asset and the liability side of banks’ balance sheets, and even those of the non-bank sector, is heavily foreign currency-denominated. This paper documents the forces that promote euroisation in Serbia. The paper argues that, in the wake of the global crisis, a window of opportunity has emerged that could foster a process of de-euroisation. The lack of foreign funding and recent exchange rate volatility has tilted borrower incentives towards local currency borrowing. If disinflationary macroeconomic policies gain credibility, with the possible support of regulatory options, euroisation could drop sharply.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist in its series Working Papers with number 120.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebd:wpaper:120

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  1. Sandra Dvorsky & Thomas Scheiber & Helmut Stix, 2008. "Euroization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – First Results from the New OeNB Euro Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  3. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & David Vavra, 2013. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Papers 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
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