Euroisation in Serbia
AbstractEuroisation in Serbia is rooted in a long history of macroeconomic instability. Extreme inflation volatility has undermined trust in the dinar and discouraged dinar savings. At the same time, an abundant supply of foreign capital inflows has provided easy access to foreign currency lending at low interest rates in an environment of perceived exchange rate stability – a perception reinforced by the choice of exchange rate regime. As a result, both the asset and the liability side of banks’ balance sheets, and even those of the non-bank sector, is heavily foreign currency-denominated. This paper documents the forces that promote euroisation in Serbia. The paper argues that, in the wake of the global crisis, a window of opportunity has emerged that could foster a process of de-euroisation. The lack of foreign funding and recent exchange rate volatility has tilted borrower incentives towards local currency borrowing. If disinflationary macroeconomic policies gain credibility, with the possible support of regulatory options, euroisation could drop sharply.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist in its series Working Papers with number 120.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
- P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2011-02-05 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2011-02-05 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2011-02-05 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sandra Dvorsky & Thomas Scheiber & Helmut Stix, 2008. "Euroization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – First Results from the New OeNB Euro Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear Of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
- Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & David Vavra, 2013. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Papers 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
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