What Does the Lewis Turning Point Mean for China? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
AbstractWe apply a computable general equilibrium framework to assess likely impacts of the Lewis turning point on China and the rest of the world. Modeling results suggest that China will probably transition from an abnormal economy to a normal economy with somewhat lower growth but higher inflation, which requires significant revision to the macroeconomic policy framework. China would lose competitiveness in laborintensive activities, its current account surplus should fall but overinvestment risk could rise. These changes in China should help improve other counties current accounts and boost lowcost countries production. The Lewis turning point, however, does not provide automatic solutions to some of the key challenges, such as service sector development and innovation capability. China will need to make serious policy efforts to avoid the socalled middle income trap.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22718.
Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Lewis turning point; labor shortage; general equilibrium analysis; normal economy; middleÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Âincome trap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
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- Vandana Chandra & Justin Yifu Lin & Yan Wang, 2013.
"Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries,"
Asian Development Review, MIT Press,
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- Chandra, Vandana & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yan, 2012. "Leading Dragons phenomenon : new opportunities for catch-up in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6000, The World Bank.
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