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Return Explanatory Ability and Predictability of Non-Linear Market Models

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  • Chi-Hsiou Hung

    ()
    (Durham Business School)

Abstract

Recent literature supports the pricing of higher-order systematic co-moments of returns. This paper provides some support for the quadratic-market model that is consistent with the three-moment CAPM in explaining time-series returns of the winner and the smallest size portfolios. This study further uses three innovative methodologies in analysing the ability of the linear CAPM, the quadratic- and the cubic-market models in predicting one-period- ahead returns on individual stocks, equally- and value-weighted portfolios of momentum, size and country sorts. The results are surprising but important that the higher-moment CAPM market models do not outperform the linear CAPM in the return predictability tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Durham University Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2007_05.

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Date of creation: 20 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dur:durham:2007_05

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Postal: Durham University Business School, Mill Hill Lane, Durham DH1 3LB, England
Phone: +44 (0)191 334 5200
Fax: +44 (0)191 334 5201
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Web page: http://www.dur.ac.uk/business
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Related research

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Non-Linearity; Return Predictability;

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References

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  1. Lim, Kian-Guan, 1989. "A New Test of the Three-Moment Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 205-216, June.
  2. Daniel Chi-Hsiou Hung & Mark Shackleton & Xinzhong Xu, 2004. "CAPM, Higher Co-moment and Factor Models of UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1-2), pages 87-112.
  3. Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2003. "Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?," Finance 0308004, EconWPA.
  4. Rubinstein, Mark E., 1973. "The Fundamental Theorem of Parameter-Preference Security Valuation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 61-69, January.
  5. Jean, William H., 1971. "The Extension of Portfolio Analysis to Three or More Parameters," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 505-515, January.
  6. Karen K. Lewis, 2006. "Is the International Diversification Potential Diminishing? Foreign Equity Inside and Outside the US," NBER Working Papers 12697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kim, Dongcheol, 1997. "A Reexamination of Firm Size, Book-to-Market, and Earnings Price in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 463-489, December.
  8. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, 02.
  9. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
  10. Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Conditional coskewness and asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-119, January.
  11. Chi-Hsiou Hung, 2007. "Momentum, Size and Value Factors versus Systematic Co-moments in Stock Returns," Working Papers 2007_02, Durham University Business School.
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