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Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland

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Author Info

  • Boriss Siliverstovs
  • Rainald Ötsch
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Carlo Jaeger
  • Armin Haas
  • Hans Kremers

Abstract

This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.92089.de/dp840.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 840.

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Length: 19 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp840

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Related research

Keywords: Climate change; GEV; Bayesian modelling; Great Alpine Heat Wave;

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