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Die Energiewirtschaft am Kaspischen Meer: enttäuschte Erwartungen - unsichere Perspektiven

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  • Hella Engerer
  • Christian von Hirschhausen

Abstract

The growing literature on the potential role of energy resources around the Caspian Sea is dominated by geoplitics whereas economic aspects have been largely neglected thus far. The relevance of Caspian oil and gas reserves continues to be praised, though objective data on production and exports provide an opposite impression: the post-socialist depression of the energy sector in the Caspian CIS-countries has not been turned into an upswing. This paper analyses four critical aspects of the question: the nature of the resources, disputes over ownership, transport bottlenecks and the economic feasibility of the planned projects. Our result is that due to a combination of obstacles, an energy-induced economic boom in the area is unlikely. Though the Caspian energy resources will not have the expected relevance for Central and Western Europe, the region will nonetheless play an increasing role as a neighbour of an eastward-enlarged European Union. Über die Rolle der Energievorkommen am Kaspischen Meer gibt es eine rasch wachsende geopolitische Literatur, bei der ökonomische Aspekte bisher weitgehend vernachlässigt wurden. So wird bis heute auf die große Bedeutung der kaspischen Erdöl- und Erdgasvorkommen verwiesen, obwohl die Produktions- und Exportdaten der Region ein völlig anderes Bild zeichnen; dem Einbruch der Energiewirtschaft der GUS-Anrainerstaaten des Kaspischen Meeres ist bisher kein spürbarer Aufschwung gefolgt. In diesem Papier werden die Probleme der Energiewirtschaft am Kaspischen Meer aus vier unterschiedlichen Perspektiven kritisch beleuchtet: Neben den Ressourcen, den Eigentumsverhältnissen und den Transportengpässen wird auch die Frage der Wirtschaftlichkeit der geplanten Projekte hinterfragt. Es stellt sich heraus, daß aufgrund vielfältiger Probleme in allen vier Bereichen ein Aufbruch in der Region unwahrscheinlich ist. Während die kaspischen Vorkommen für den mittel- und westeuropäischen Raum nicht die erwartete energiewirtschaftliche Bedeutung haben werden, gewinnt die Region durch die Osterweiterung der EU als zukünftiger "Nachbar" auch unabhängig vom Energiesektor größere Bedeutung.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38508.de/dp171.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 171.

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Length: 22 p.
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp171

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