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Cohort overlays of evolving childbearing patterns: how postponement and recuperation are refl ected in period fertility trends

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  • Tomas Frejka

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Combining cohort and period perspectives a method is developed that follows the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation and its reflection in total period fertility levels and trends in low fertility populations. It is complementary to methods pioneered by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) estimating tempo-adjusted period total fertility rates. The method can be characterized as revealing the internal structural mechanism of the postponement and recuperation process. It is applied to analyzing the fertility history of Western countries, Southern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and East Asia during the past half century. Our research concludes that period fertility descents and troughs, for instance, “lowest-low” fertility, as well as increases and peaks are a reflection of changing cohort childbearing patterns due to fertility postponement and recuperation combined with overlays of successive birth cohorts. Period fertility troughs occurred in Western countries during the 1980s, in Central and Eastern Europe around 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Frejka, 2010. "Cohort overlays of evolving childbearing patterns: how postponement and recuperation are refl ected in period fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-026
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-026
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    2. John Casterline & Siqi Han, 2017. "Unrealized fertility: Fertility desires at the end of the reproductive career," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(14), pages 427-454.
    3. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    4. repec:gdk:wpaper:23 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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