Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression
AbstractNonparametric estimation of a structural cointegrating regression model is studied. As in the standard linear cointegrating regression model, the regressor and the dependent variable are jointly dependent and contemporaneously correlated. In nonparametric estimation problems, joint dependence is known to be a major complication that affects identification, induces bias in conventional kernel estimates, and frequently leads to ill-posed inverse problems. In functional cointegrating regressions where the regressor is an integrated time series, it is shown here that inverse and ill-posed inverse problems do not arise. Remarkably, nonparametric kernel estimation of a structural nonparametric cointegrating regression is consistent and the limit distribution theory is mixed normal, giving simple useable asymptotics in practical work. The results provide a convenient basis for inference in structural nonparametric regression with nonstationary time series. The methods may be applied to a wide range of empirical models where functional estimation of cointegrating relations is required.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1657.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometrica (Nov. 2009), 77(6): 1901-1948
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Other versions of this item:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-05-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2008-05-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2008-05-24 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-ORE-2008-05-24 (Operations Research)
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- Whitney Newey & James Powell & Francis Vella, 1998.
"Nonparametric Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models,"
98-16, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell & Francis Vella, 1999. "Nonparametric Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 565-604, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell & Francis Vella, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models," Working papers 98-6, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
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