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Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy

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Author Info
Ioannis Karatzas (Columbia University)
Martin Shubik () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
William D. Sudderth (University of Minnesota)
Geanakoplos, John () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

We construct explicit equilibria for strategic market games used to model an economy with fiat money, one nondurable commodity, countably many time- periods, and a continuum of agents. The total production of the commodity is a random variable that fluctuates from period to period. In each period, the agents receive equal endowments of the commodity, and sell them for cash in a market; their spending determines, endogenously, the price of the commodity. All agents have a common utility function, and seek to maximize their expected total discounted utility from consumption. Suppose an outside bank sets an interest rate rho for loans and deposits. If 1 + rho is the reciprocal of the discount factor, and if agents must bid for consumption in each period before knowing their income, then there is no inflation. However, there is an inflationary trend if agents know their income before bidding. We also consider a model with an active central bank, which is both accurately informed and flexible in its ability to change interest rates. This, however, may not be sufficient to control inflation.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1333.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1333.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1333

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; strategic market games; control; interest rate; central bank; equilibrium;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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