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Corrélations investissement-épargne et mobilité internationale des capitaux

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Author Info

  • Jean-Pierre BERDOT

    (Université de Poitiers)

  • Gérard KEBABDJIAN

    (Université de Paris 8)

  • Jacques LEONARD

    (Université de Poitiers)

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    Abstract

    On admet généralement que la mobilité internationale serait devenue très forte à la suite de la libéralisation et de l'intégration financière des vingt dernières années. De façon surprenante, la plupart des travaux empiriques « à la Feldstein-Horioka » ne valident cette hypothèse. Une reconsidération de ces estimations conduit toutefois à des résultats neufs. Les tests, même classiques, confortent l'idée d'un accroissement à long terme de la mobilité et la tendance s'est accentuée depuis le début des années quatre-vingt. Tous les pays industrialisés, grands ou petits, sont concernés par cette augmentation; la globalisation financière marque néanmoins une frontière entre ces pays et les pays émergents pour lesquels l'investissement demeure dépendant de l'épargne intérieure. Dans l'ensemble, la décorrélation entre investissement et épargne se manifeste par une plus grande autonomie des flux de capitaux. La relation linéaire entre investissement et épargne pivote autour d'un point fixe représenté par le taux d'épargne mondial. Le positionnement des pays par rapport à ce point fixe permet d'établir une typologie robuste qui remet en cause l'idée reçue selon laquelle tous les pays seraient égaux devant la globalisation financière.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2003011.

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    Length: 33
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2003011

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    Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
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    Related research

    Keywords: Globalisation; Mouvements de capitaux; Intégration financière;

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    References

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    1. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
    2. Alan M. Taylor, 1994. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 4892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Charles Engel & Kenneth Kletzer, 1987. "Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-Traded Goods," NBER Working Papers 2141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," RCER Working Papers 154, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    6. Finn, Mary G., 1990. "On savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1993. "Domestic savings and intra-national capital flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1197-1202, August.
    9. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October.
    10. Coakley, Jerry & Hasan, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Saving, Investment, and Capital Mobility in LDCs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 632-40, November.
    11. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    12. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-37, May.
    13. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
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