Stability of Okun's Law in a Codependent System
AbstractIn this paper, we question the stability of Okun's law, i.e. the empirical regularity that seems to hold between economic activity and unemployment. To this aim, we propose to build two complementary indicators of real rigidity, using the codependence methodology. The first one is a recursive estimation of Okun's coefficient, and the second one is a measure of persistence defined by the dimension of the dynamic structure. For the sample of OECD countries that we considered, it appears that only two of them (Italy and Belgium) present a high degree of such rigidities. The recursive analysis proves that all countries tend to be more flexible, confirming the movement towards more flexible labor markets. This analysis provides powerful tools for a better understanding of the dynamics within Okun's law.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1998016.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 1998
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codependence; Okun's Law; GMM; Recursive Estimates;
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- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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