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An Attempt at Reading Keynes's Treatise on Probability

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  • Christian P. Robert

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Abstract

The book A Treatise on Probability was published by John MaynardKeynes in 1921. It contains a critical assessment of the foundations of probabilityand of the current statistical methodology. As a modern reader, we review herethe aspects that are most related with statistics, avoiding a neophyte's perspectiveon the philosophical issues. In particular, the book is quite critical of the Bayesianapproach and we examine the arguments provided by Keynes, as well as the alter-native he proposes. This review does not subsume the scholarly study of Aldrich(2008a) relating Keynes with the statistics community of the time.

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  • Christian P. Robert, 2010. "An Attempt at Reading Keynes's Treatise on Probability," Working Papers 2010-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2010-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lyle Broemeling, 2003. "Studies in the history of probability and statistics XLVIII The Bayesian contributions of Ernest Lhoste," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(3), pages 728-731, September.
    2. Stigler, Stephen, 2002. "Statisticians and the History of Economics," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 155-164, June.
    3. John Aldrich, 2008. "Keynes among the Statisticians," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 265-316, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seites-Rundlett, William & Bashar, Mohammad Z. & Torres-Machi, Cristina & Corotis, Ross B., 2022. "Combined evidence model to enhance pavement condition prediction from highly uncertain sensor data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Christian Robert, 2013. "Error and inference: an outsider stand on a frequentist philosophy," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(3), pages 447-461, March.

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