How Did Computerization Since the 1980s Affect Older Workers?

Laborsaving machines, from the cotton gin to automotive robots, have dramatically reduced the amount of human effort needed to produce goods and services. And despite anxiety about machine-driven mass unemployment, workers replaced by machines have not remained idle over the long term. Instead, they have found jobs in growing industries by learning to perform new tasks. But these transitions have not always been easy, especially for older workers Ð who have considerable knowledge tied to their current job and a shorter period over which to benefit from new skills. As machines rapidly take on new tasks, from serving coffee to diagnosing cancer, will older workers continue to find jobs that make use of their skills? For the many people who need to work into their late 60s to afford to retire, the stakes are high. This brief is the second in a three-part series on how increasingly capable machines might affect job prospects for older workers in the near future. The first brief reviewed the impact of different types of laborsaving machines over the past two centuries. Since computers are the machines that continue to define our times, this brief reviews their impact on older workers starting in the 1980s. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section explains how machines can create short-term winners or losers depending on the tasks that the machines take on. The second section describes how computers took on ÒroutineÓ tasks, which affected workers differently by their education level. The third section analyzes whether these effects extended to workers ages 55-64, and concludes that they did. Across age groups, computers have largely benefited workers with a college degree and computer skills, but made it harder for workers with less education to find good jobs. A shrinking gap between the education level and computer knowledge of young and old workers helps explain their similar outcomes. The final section looks ahead to the next brief, which addresses whether the current pattern will continue as computers become more sophisticated.