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The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

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  • Restrepo, Jorge
  • Spagat, Michael

Abstract

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4570.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4570

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Keywords: Colombia; conflict;

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Cited by:
  1. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019," MPRA Paper 539, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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