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The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

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Author Info
Restrepo, Jorge
Spagat, Michael

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Abstract

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4570.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4570

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Related research
Keywords: Colombia; conflict;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances

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  1. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019," MPRA Paper 5655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019," MPRA Paper 539, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Colombian Civil Conflict: A New Data Set," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/10, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019," MPRA Paper 134, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 May 2006. [Downloadable!]
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