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Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Viewpoints on Asset Prices

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  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • ,
  • Gomez Cram, Roberto

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which individual politicians affect asset prices using a high-frequency identification approach. We exploit the regular flow of viewpoints contained in a large volume of tweets from members of US Congress. Congressional tweets targeting individual firms are collected and classified based on their tone. Supportive (critical) tweets increase (decrease) stock prices of the targeted firm in minutes around the tweet. The price response persists for several days, during which analysts revise their forecasts about the firm cash flows. Selected politician tweets linked to legislation affect the stock prices of firms in the same industry as the targeted firm. The timeline of politician viewpoints within a particular bill exhibits surges in relevant news that predict roll call votes months before the signing of the bill. We highlight how the social media accounts of politicians are a valuable source of political news.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Francesco & , & Gomez Cram, Roberto, 2022. "Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Viewpoints on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 16034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16034
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    Cited by:

    1. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    2. Javier Gil-Bazo & Juan F. Imbet, 2022. "Tweeting for money: Social media and mutual fund flows," Economics Working Papers 1846, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Economics Series Working Papers 973, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Guy Aridor & Rafael Jiménez-Durán & Ro'ee Levy & Lena Song, 2024. "The Economics of Social Media," CESifo Working Paper Series 10934, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; High-frequency identification; Social media; Partisanship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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