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Growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy 1996-2003: A CGE analysis

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  • Tran Hoang Nhi
  • James A. Giesecke

Abstract

We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favourable shifts in foreign preferences for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-171.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Publication status: Published in 'Sources of growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy, 1996-2003: A CGE analysis', Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 23(2), June 2009, pp. 195-224.
Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-171

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Keywords: CGE model; Vietnam;

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