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Escenarios de ajuste al sistema pensional colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Córdoba Garcés
  • Gabriel Piraquive Galeano

Abstract

Este documento expone un diagnóstico de los principales problemas en el diseno del sistema pensional colombiano y presenta una comparación de tres escenarios de ajuste posibles: (1) hacer ajustes paramétricos al sistema actual; (2) adoptar un sistema de pilares, con el primer pilar administrado por Colpensiones; y (3) hacer una reforma que cierre el acceso al régimen de prima media (RPM), vinculando a todos los nuevos afiliados al régimen de ahorro individual con solidaridad y garantía de pensión mínima (RAIS). Nuestras simulaciones al 2075 indican que, en valor presente neto, la reforma de cierre del acceso al RPM para nuevos afiliados es muy superior a las otras dos propuestas de reforma y que esta reforma complementada con incrementos en la edad de jubilación, incremento de dos puntos en la tasa de cotización y logrando una mayor formalización del mercado laboral, disminuye el déficit público de pensiones asociado a Colpensiones de 57,2% del PIB en 2075 a 23,2% del PIB. Adicionalmente, esta simulación permite incrementar el ahorro privado institucional en más de 10 puntos del PIB. Finalmente, dados estos resultados se hace una propuesta del escenario deseable de ajuste al sistema pensional colombiano.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Córdoba Garcés & Gabriel Piraquive Galeano, 2019. "Escenarios de ajuste al sistema pensional colombiano," Documentos CEDE 17321, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:017321
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/41086/dcede2019-22.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Sistema de Pensiones; Seguridad Social; Régimen de Ahorro Individual; Régimen de Prima Media; Subsidios.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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