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El desempleo de equilibrio en Colombia: Una estimación utilizando la curva de Beveridge

Author

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  • Laura Becerra

Abstract

En los últimos anos la tasa de desempleo colombiana ha tenido una tendencia decreciente, sin generar presiones inflacionarias importantes. Una posible explicación a este fenómeno, es que la tasa de desempleo de equilibrio (NAIRU) haya caído, reflejando mejoras en la eficiencia del mercado. Este trabajo busca entender si la tendencia de la tasa de desempleo se explica a partir de un cambio cíclico o estructural. Para resolver la pregunta, se construye una curva de Beveridge (la relación entre desempleo y vacantes) para el período 1976Q1-2014Q2 y se realiza una estimación de la NAIRU a partir de un modelo que combina esta curva y la curva de Phillips (la relación entre inflación y desempleo). Los resultados indican que efectivamente la NAIRU ha caído, ubicándose a partir del 2013 por debajo del 10%. Esto sugiere que la eficiencia en el emparejamiento entre oferta y demanda laboral ha mejorado.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Becerra, 2015. "El desempleo de equilibrio en Colombia: Una estimación utilizando la curva de Beveridge," Documentos CEDE 12563, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:012563
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vacantes; tasa de desempleo; NAIRU; curva de Beveridge; curva de Phillips; mercado laboral; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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