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Les dépenses en santé du gouvernement du Québec, 2013-2030 : projections et déterminants

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Author Info

  • Nicholas-James Clavet
  • Jean-Yves Duclos

    ()

  • Bernard Fortin

    ()

  • Steeve Marchand
  • Pierre-Carl Michaud

    ()

Abstract

Les données de l’Institut canadien d’information en santé (ICIS) et le modèle de micro-simulation dynamique de SIMUL permettent à la fois de projeter les dépenses en santé du Québec jusqu’en 2030 et d’en évaluer l’importance par rapport au PIB et aux revenus de l’État. Un scénario plausible prévoit que les dépenses publiques en santé augmenteront de 31,3 G$ à 61,1 G$ de 2013 à 2030, passant de 8,4 % à 13,5 % du PIB et de 42,9 % à 68,9 % des revenus totaux du gouvernement du Québec. De cette croissance de 29,8 milliards des dépenses publiques en santé, environ 12,3 G$ proviendra des effets du vieillissement de la population, 3,8 G$ sera dû à l’accroissement de la population par l’effet de l’immigration, et 18,2 G$ proviendra de la croissance des coûts structurels des soins de santé. Pour maintenir constante la part des dépenses en santé, il faudrait sous ce scénario augmenter de 60 % tous les impôts et toutes les taxes du gouvernement du Québec et ce, tout en supposant que l’assiette fiscale n’en soit pas affectée.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2013s-45.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-45

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Keywords: ; santé; changements démographiques; vieillissement; finances publiques;

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