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Quantitative Easing and Equity Prices: Evidence from the ETF Program of the Bank of Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Barbon

    (Università della Svizzera italiana (USI), Lugano; Swiss Finance Institute, Students)

  • Virginia Gianinazzi

    (Università della Svizzera italiana (USI), Lugano; Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Since the introduction of its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing program in 2013, the Bank of Japan has been increasing its holdings of Japanese equity through large scale purchases of index-linked ETFs with the intention of lowering assets' risk premia. We exploit the cross-sectional heterogeneity of the shock to supply induced by the policy to identify a positive, sizeable and persistent impact on stock prices consistent with a portfolio balance channel. The evidence suggests that demand curves for stocks are downward sloping in the long-run. We estimate an increase of 22 basis points in aggregate market valuation per trillion Yen invested into the program, corresponding to a price elasticity of 1. We show that the purchases of ETFs tracking the price-weighted Nikkei 225 index generate significant pricing distortions relative to a value-weighted benchmark. Finally, we provide a rigorous framework to discuss the consequences of a potential exit strategy from QE.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Barbon & Virginia Gianinazzi, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and Equity Prices: Evidence from the ETF Program of the Bank of Japan," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-55, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1955
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    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2925198
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Gunji & Kazuki Miura & Yuan Yuan, 2023. "The effect of the Bank of Japan's Exchange‐Traded Fund purchases on firm performance," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 346-370, September.
    2. Mitsuru Katagiri & Junnosuke Shino & Koji Takahashi, 2023. "To lend or not to lend: the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and securities lending," BIS Working Papers 1113, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    5. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi & Junnosuke Shino, 2022. "Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation," BIS Working Papers 1029, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Stefania D'Amico & Vamsi Kurakula & Stephen M. Lee, 2020. "Impacts of the Fed Corporate Credit Facilities through the Lenses of ETFs and CDX," Working Paper Series WP-2020-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    8. Harada, Kimie & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2021. "The BOJ's ETF purchases and its effects on Nikkei 225 stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Ko Adachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2021. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (1): The Effects of the Bank of Japan's ETF Purchases on Risk Premia in the Stock Markets," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    10. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Shino, Junnosuke & Takahashi, Koji, 2022. "The announcement effects of a change in the Bank of Japan’s ETF purchase program: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Jin, Ling & Li, Zhisheng & Lu, Lei & Ni, Xiaoran, 2023. "Does stock market rescue affect investment efficiency in the real sector?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Ailie Charteris & Conrad Alexander Steyn, 2023. "The Bank of Japan’s exchange traded fund purchases: a help or hindrance to market efficiency?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 225-240, May.
    13. Hattori, Takahiro & Yoshida, Jiro, 2023. "The impact of Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchases," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Nozawa, Yoshio & Qiu, Yancheng, 2021. "Corporate bond market reactions to quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Guo, Qi & Huang, Shao'an & Wang, Gaowang, 2024. "Stabilizing the Financial Markets through Communication and Informed Trading," MPRA Paper 120072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Guo, Qi & Huang, Shao'an & Wang, Gaowang, 2022. "Stabilizing the Financial Markets through Informed Trading," MPRA Paper 115470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. El Kalak, Izidin & Leung, Woon Sau & Takahashi, Hidenori & Yamada, Kazuo, 2023. "The Bank of Japan's equity purchases and stock illiquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Patrick Aldridge & David Cimon & Rishi Vala, 2023. "Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs," Discussion Papers 2023-30, Bank of Canada.
    19. Cohen, Lior, 2023. "The effects of the BoJ's ETF purchases on equities and corporate investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2022. "The Effects of Large-scale Equity Purchases during the Coronavirus Pandemic," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1186, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    21. Maeda, Kou & Shino, Junnosuke & Takahashi, Koji, 2022. "Counteracting large-scale asset purchase program: The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases and securities lending," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 563-576.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ETFs; quantitative easing; portfolio balance channel; unconventional monetary policy; Bank of Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics

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