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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Behavior in Chile

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  • Adolfo Barajas
  • Leonardo Luna
  • Jorge Restrepo
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    Abstract

    The purpose of this study is to analyze bank behavior in Chile over time, exploring how their balance sheets and performance move in both the short and the long run, and their reaction to macroeconomic shocks. The evolution of banking aggregates over an 18-year period (1989- 2006), using quarterly data is examined. Techniques common in the real business cycle literature are applied to establish empirical patterns. Robustness tests using several filters are performed. The effects of macro shocks on banking variables are analyzed, both by means of an event study, and by estimating impulse responses with VARs. The results show that credit lags the cycle, demand deposits lead it, both being procyclical, while the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is countercyclical. In addition, a shock to interest rates reduces loans (total, commercial, consumption), and increases non-performing loans (NPL) and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). A shock to GDP growth has a positive effect on loans and ROE, and a negative impact on NPL and CAR.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 436.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:436

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
      • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
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    Cited by:
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Marketes: A Bird's Eye View," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 55-84, August.
    2. José Miguel Matus & Nancy Silva & Alejandra Marinovic & Karla Flores, 2010. "Una Visión Global de la Deuda Financiera de los Hogares Chilenos en la Última Década," Economic Statistics Series 81, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Daniel Oda & Nancy Silva, 2010. "Competencia y Toma de Riesgo en el Mercado de Créditos de Consumo Bancario Chileno (1997-2009)," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 562, Central Bank of Chile.

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