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US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma
  • Gernot Doppelhofer
  • Martin Feldkircher
  • Florian Huber

Abstract

We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy, using a global vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global inflation rates, a rise in international interest rates and a strengthening of the US dollar in real terms, with heterogeneous transmission effects across countries and over time. US short-term rates decrease significantly in response to a monetary policy tightening abroad or a negative shock to foreign real GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World," CESifo Working Paper Series 5826, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5826
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    Cited by:

    1. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    2. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    3. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global vector autoregression; time-varying parameters; stochastic volatility; monetary policy; international spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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