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Sentencing Decisions Around Quantity Thresholds: Theory and Experiment

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  • Jakub Drapal
  • Michal Soltes

Abstract

We study the implications of the structure of criminal codes on sentencing decisions. To limit sentencing disparities, criminal codes typically divide offenses into subsections with specific sentencing ranges. The classification into corresponding subsections often depends on exceeding a given quantity threshold, such as drug amount. We study the consequences of these quantity thresholds on sentencing decisions and argue that the threshold effect can be decomposed into two opposing mechanisms: the severity mechanism and the reference one. An experiment with Czech prosecutors shows that thresholds drive substantial increases in sentences, leading to sentencing disparities. We further introduce empirical measures of (in)justice and quantify the consequences of quantity thresholds on the probability of imposing a just sentence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Drapal & Michal Soltes, 2021. "Sentencing Decisions Around Quantity Thresholds: Theory and Experiment," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp715, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, James M & Kling, Jeffrey R & Stith, Kate, 1999. "Measuring Interjedge Sentencing Disparity: Before and After the Federal Sentencing Guidelines," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 271-307, April.
    2. David Bjerk, 2017. "Mandatory Minimums and the Sentencing of Federal Drug Crimes," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 93-128.
    3. Ekaterina Travova, 2019. "Under Pressure? Performance Evaluation of Police Officers as an Incentive to Cheat: Evidence from Drug Crimes in Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp637, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Bjerk, David, 2005. "Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 591-625, October.
    5. Mandeep K. Dhami & Ian K. Belton & Elizabeth Merrall & Andrew McGrath & Sheila M. Bird, 2020. "Criminal Sentencing by Preferred Numbers," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 139-163, March.
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    Keywords

    sentencing; quantity threshold; sentencing disparities;
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