Examining the Predictors of School Exclusion for Māori and Pākehā Learners

The sample used for this study followed an entire cohort of over 40,000 students through their compulsory education in New Zealand. A previously developed econometric model explaining higher rates of school exclusions for Pacific learners (an ethnic group over-represented in lower SES, higher rates of SEN, and greater rates of school exclusion) is applied to a large cohort of indigenous Māori and Pākehā learners in this study. Significant variables in the model that predict Pākehā learner school exclusion are very similar to those predicting Māori learner school exclusion. However, after accounting for variables identified in the literature as correlated with school exclusion, Māori learners are still more likely to be excluded, are more likely to be excluded more often, and are more likely to be excluded earlier than their Pākehā peers. One possible explanation of this result is that the Pygmalion Effect of teachers having lower expectations of Māori students (Blank et al, 2016) may also contribute to higher rates of school exclusion. Māori students have previously reported lower rates of belonging at school. One implication of this may be the need for a cheaper, faster way for families or advocates to appeal the decision made to exclude a learner by local principals or Boards of Trustees. This is in contrast to the current system of recourse through the court system, which can be an expensive and time-consuming process.