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The Role And Nature Of Market Sentiment In The 1992 Erm Crisis

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Author Info
Oreste Napolitano ()
Alberto Montagnoli ()
Rosaria Rita Canale

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Abstract

This paper attempts to explain the importance of the role of the speculators in determining the 1992 ERM crisis, and the effects that the policy of maintaining external parity had on internal growth. We focus on a different way through which expectations are formed about the macroeconomic fundamentals independently of the behaviour of the monetary policy. In the present model, agents’ rational beliefs do not emerge from arbitrary circumstances but only when the value of the exchange rate, kept under control by the central bank, did not correspond to the expected value and to the current wide-spread beliefs in the market.

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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 02-20.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:02-20

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  1. Gregory P. Hopper, 1997. "What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 17-29. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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