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Changes in the Korean Industry Structure due to It's Population Aging (in Korean)

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  • Jong Ku Kang

    (The Bank of Korea)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the population aging on the future industry structure in Korea, using the coefficients of estimation with the OECD country panel data and the forecast of Korean population by Statistics Korea. The result reveals that the Korean industry structure, both in terms of value added production and employment, is greatly influenced by the future change in it's population, such as population aging and declining working age population and total population. First, the Korean population structure change is expected to bring about a decrease in the share of the manufacturing sector, centering on the low skilled manufacturing sector, while an increase in the service sector, especially in the business activity sector and the health and social work sector. Second, due to the change in the population structure, the productivity of the manufacturing sector, relative to that of the whole industry, tends to fall, while that of the service sector rises. Third, the ratio of export to value added production in most manufacturing sectors rises along with the change in the population structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong Ku Kang, 2017. "Changes in the Korean Industry Structure due to It's Population Aging (in Korean)," Working Papers 2017-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1728
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    File URL: https://www.bok.or.kr/ucms/cmmn/file/fileDown.do?menuNo=600354&atchFileId=ENG_0000000001020905&fileSn=1
    File Function: Working Paper, 2017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Aging; Industry Structure; Employment; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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