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The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality under Asymmetric Preferences

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Author Info
George A. Christodoulakis () (Bank of Greece and Manchester Business School)
Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis (University of Athens and Ministry of Economy & Finance of Greece)

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Abstract

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, are used to estimate the demand for money. The coefficients of both the VEC and RC procedures support the hypothesis that the demand for money becomes more responsive to both the own rate of return on money balances and the opportunity cost of holding money because of financial deregulation. In general, both procedures also support the hypothesis that the income elasticity of money demand declines over time as a result of technological improvements in the payments system and the development of money substitutes, which lead to economies of scale in holding money.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 30.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:30

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Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
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Related research
Keywords: Asymmetric Loss Preferences; Forecast Rationality; GDP Growth Forecasts; GMM Estimation; Lin-Lin.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graham Elliott, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate are the IMF's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
    Other versions:
  4. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Christodoulakis, George A., 2005. "Financial forecasts in the presence of asymmetric loss aversion, skewness and excess kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 227-233, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Working Papers 34, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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