En effisient handlingsregel for bruk av petroleumsinntekter
Abstract
Denne artikkelen undersøker hvor mye vi bør bruke av petroleumsinntektene hvis vi samtidig skal minimere kostnadene ved å bruke dem. Slike kostnader forbindes med sektoromstillinger som ikke kan opprettholdes og må reverseres for unngå intern og ekstern ubalanse i økonomien. Realvalutakursen spiller en sentral rolle når det gjelder å frembringe slike sektoromstillinger. Den reflekterer blant annet nivået på bruken av petroluemsinntektene. Den konsumraten for petroleumsinntekter som fører til minst svingninger i realvalutakursen og sektorsammensetningen, kaller vi “effisient konsumrate”. Det vises at den effisiente konsumraten blir lik realavkastningen på petroleumsformuen minus den inntektsbestemte importveksten. Vi tallfester denne raten til 1 % av den samlede petroleumsformuen. Vi finner også at den offisielle handlingsregelen tilsier større bruk av petroleumsinntekter enn det som foreskrives av den effisiente konsumraten.Download Info
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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2004/17.Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 18 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2004_17
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Keywords: Petroleumsinntekter; realvalutakurs; finanspolitikk; handlingsregel;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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