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Política monetaria y formación de expectativas en un modelo neokeynesiano

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Carballo

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between expectation formation and monetary policy in a New Keynesian general equilibrium framework. To do this, a model that incorporates an equation for the formation of private sector inflation expectations, is developed. Based on the results obtained in the gap estimation and shock simulation exercises, the model constitutes an ideal tool for the analysis of monetary policy in Uruguay. The impulse response exercises illustrate the importance of formation of expectations and credibility for the design of monetary policy. Likewise, the results obtained in the decomposition of the variance of the forecast errors show the importance of shocks on the inflation target and private sector expectations to explain the behavior of inflation and the formation of expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Carballo, 2022. "Política monetaria y formación de expectativas en un modelo neokeynesiano," Documentos de trabajo 2022001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2022001
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/1.2022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bucacos, Elizabeth & Carballo, Patricia & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "Policy responses to COVID-19 in Uruguay," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    semi-structural model; monetary policy; expectations; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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