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Comparación De Métodos Para La Estimación De La Incertidumbre Del Valor En Riesgo

Author

Listed:
  • SANTIAGO GAMBA SANTAMARÍA
  • OSCAR FERNANDO JAULÍN MÉNDEZ
  • LUIS FERNANDO MELO VELANDIA
  • CARLOS ANDRÉS QUICAZÁN MORENO

Abstract

El Valor en Riesgo (VaR) es una medida de riesgo de mercado ampliamente usada por administradores de riesgo y autoridades regulatorias. Sin embargo, a pesar de que existe una gran variedad de metodologías propuestas en la literatura para la estimación del VaR, pocas de ellas dicen algo acerca de su distribución o sus intervalos de confianza. Este artículo compara distintas metodologías para calcular esos intervalos. Se utilizaron métodos basados en normalidad asintótica, teoría del valor extremo y bootstrap de submuestra. Usando simulaciones de Monte Carlo, se encontró que estas aproximaciones son válidas sólo para cuantiles altos. Particularmente, en términos de porcentaje de cobertura, estas metodologías presentan un buen desempeño para el VaR(99%) y un bajo desempeño para el VaR(95%) y el VaR(90%). En general, estos resultados se confirman a través de un ejercicio empírico aplicado a los bonos de deuda publica colombiana.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Gamba Santamaría & Oscar Fernando Jaulín Méndez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Carlos Andrés Quicazán Moreno, 2015. "Comparación De Métodos Para La Estimación De La Incertidumbre Del Valor En Riesgo," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 83, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:83
    DOI: 10.32468/tef.83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moraux, Franck, 2011. "How valuable is your VaR? Large sample confidence intervals for normal VaR," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 189-200, March.
    2. Hang Chan, Ngai & Deng, Shi-Jie & Peng, Liang & Xia, Zhendong, 2007. "Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 556-576, April.
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    4. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2015. "Risk-parameter estimation in volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 158-173.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valor en Riesgo; intervalos de confianza; data tilting; bootstrap de submuestra. Classification-JEL:C51; C52; C53; G32.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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