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Sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente: una aproximación desde la suavización intertemporal del consumo

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  • Juan Nicolás Hernández

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Abstract

El documento calcula la cuenta corriente óptima hacia el largo plazo, basándose en un enfoque de suavización intertemporal del consumo. La cuenta corriente actúa como una salvaguardia de manera que sí, hacia el largo plazo, se prevé una caída en el flujo del ingreso nacional, la mayor necesidad de ahorro en el presente implica un menor déficit en cuenta corriente. El trabajo coincide con trabajos anteriores en la identificación de los periodos en los cuales la cuenta corriente de Colombia ha estado alejada de la óptima. No obstante, al ampliar la muestra hasta 2004 y con proyecciones de la cuenta corriente hasta 2007, se identifica un agente representativo que tiende a consumir justamente su ingreso permanente en contraposición a aquel que tiende a consumir más allá de este. El progresivo relajamiento de las restricciones crediticias permite inferir en perspectiva, un comportamiento del consumo y por tanto de la cuenta corriente más cercanos al óptimo. Bajos los supuestos de déficit en cuenta corriente considerados se sugiere, a partir de 2006, la necesidad de un mayor ahorro.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 440.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:440

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Keywords: Cuenta corriente; ingreso permanente; restricciones crediticias; ahorro; inversión. Classification JEL: E21; F41; C30;

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