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Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis


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  • Francesco Zollino

    (Banca d'Italia)

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    The paper provides an econometric analysis of the aggregate saving function of Italian households in the vein of the life cycle theory. Results from an ECM representation based on yearly data for 1951-1998 point to depressive effects on private consumption of recent reforms of social security, actual and expected for next few years. In order to compensate for both reductions in actual pension payments and increased uncertainty about their future claims, households stepped up accumulation of real and financial assets since the beginning of the nineties. First estimates of capital gains do not show a significant impact on consumption demand, in the short and in the long period: their high volatility has likely hindered a fair assessment of their contribution to personal purchasing power on the part of households. Demographic changes, while in the long run not seemingly determined in conjunction with the economic variables we consider, turn out to play a significant role in the evolution of consumption demand.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 417.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_417_01

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    Related research

    Keywords: life cycle; saving; pension wealth; capital gains; demographic changes;

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    Cited by:
    1. Luigi Cannari & Giovanni D'Alessio & Romina Gambacorta, 2007. "Capital gains and wealth distribution in Italy," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 129-156 Bank for International Settlements.


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