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Analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette publique au Luxembourg

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  • Florian Henne

Abstract

Cette étude vise à évaluer les risques portant sur la soutenabilité de la dette publique au Luxembourg. Elle repose sur l’utilisation d’un outil DSA (« Debt Sustainability Analysis ») développé par l’Eurosystème, dont la méthodologie est adaptée et appliquée au cas du Luxembourg. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que, en l’absence de chocs négatifs et en considérant que le Luxembourg respecte les critères du Pacte de Stabilité et de Croissance, les risques pesant sur la soutenabilité de la dette semblent être faibles dans l’horizon considéré. Néanmoins, bien que le niveau de dette publique soit relativement bas, les résultats permettent d’identifier certains risques susceptibles d’exercer une pression à la hausse sur la trajectoire de la dette et ainsi menacer sa soutenabilité.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Henne, 2019. "Analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette publique au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 127, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp127
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    3. Warmedinger, Thomas & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Drudi, Francesco & Setzer, Ralph & De Stefani, Roberta & Bouabdallah, Othman & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework," Occasional Paper Series 185, European Central Bank.
    4. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dette publique; soutenabilité de la dette; DSA; gouvernance européenne.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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