In this paper we examine the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility, in the period of February 1999 to June 2000. Our results are in line with recent literature, suggesting that the implied volatility obtained from a simple option-pricing model, although an upward-biased estimator of future volatility does provide information about volatility over the remaining life of the option, which is not present in past returns. Results are robust to the choice of two alternative time series models to explore information embedded in returns, a fixed volatility and a GARCH (1,1) model, even allowing for in-sample forecasts by the GARCH (1,1) model. Results are also robust to the choice of measuring realized volatility in two alternative ways.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number
15.
Length: Date of creation: Mar 2001 Date of revision: Publication status: Published in Economia Aplicada (Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics), Vol. 5, no. 3 (Jul-Sep 2001). Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:15
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
Related research
Keywords:
Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)