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Term Structure Movements Implicit in Option Prices

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Author Info
Caio Ibsen R. Almeida
José Valentim M. Vicente

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how including options in the estimation of a dynamic term structure model impacts the way it captures term structure movements. Two versions of a multi-factor Gaussian model are compared: One adopting only bonds data, and the other adopting a joint dataset of bonds and options. Term structure movements extracted under each version behave distinctly, with slope and curvature presenting higher mean reversion rates when options are adopted. The composition of bond risk premium is also affected, with considerably more weight attributed to the level factor when options are included. The inclusion of options in the estimation of the dynamic model also improves the pricing of out-of-sample options.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 128.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:128

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  1. Olivier Scaillet & Boris Leblanc, 1998. "Path dependent options on yields in the affine term structure model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 349-367. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cheuk, Terry H F & Vorst, Ton C F, 1999. "Average Interest Rate Caps," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 183-96, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. GARCIA,René & LUGER, Richard & RENAULT, Éric, 2001. "Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables," Cahiers de recherche 2001-10, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ravi Jagannathan & Andrew Kaplin & Steve Guoqiang Sun, 2001. "An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices," NBER Working Papers 8682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Driessen, J. & Klaassen, P. & Melenberg, B., 2000. "The performance of multi-factor term structure models for pricing and hedging caps and swaptions," Discussion Paper 93, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-230, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jose Vicente & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Bonds Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market," Working Papers Series 141, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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