Term Structure Movements Implicit in Option Prices
AbstractThis paper analyzes how including options in the estimation of a dynamic term structure model impacts the way it captures term structure movements. Two versions of a multi-factor Gaussian model are compared: One adopting only bonds data, and the other adopting a joint dataset of bonds and options. Term structure movements extracted under each version behave distinctly, with slope and curvature presenting higher mean reversion rates when options are adopted. The composition of bond risk premium is also affected, with considerably more weight attributed to the level factor when options are included. The inclusion of options in the estimation of the dynamic model also improves the pricing of out-of-sample options.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 128.
Date of creation: Dec 2006
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- Jose Vicente & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007.
"Forecasting Bonds Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market,"
Working Papers Series
141, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
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