IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/17-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Factors and Inflation in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Laurence Savoie-Chabot

Abstract

This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate. However, our analysis of potential channels (import prices, global slack and the integration in global value chains) does not help to improve our understanding of the recent weakness in inflation. The analysis reinforces our current assessment that the weakness in inflation over recent quarters is mostly due to Canada-specific temporary factors (food and electricity prices). Still, there is a risk that part of the recent unexplained weakness in CPI inflation may not be due exclusively to Canada-specific factors, although the channels through which that global common factor operates remain undetermined. Further work is therefore needed to explore other channels (e.g., digitalization) through which the effect of this common factor might operate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Brouillette & Laurence Savoie-Chabot, 2017. "Global Factors and Inflation in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 17-17, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/san2017-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis Morel, 2007. "The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Discussion Papers 07-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/124, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
    2. Madigan Dockrill & Laurence Savoie-Chabot, 2018. "Introducing a Systematic Measure of Idiosyncratic Prices," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-33, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Ms. Li Lin & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?," IMF Working Papers 2018/188, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 137-169, June.
    3. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Kosuke Aoki & Yoshihiko Hogen & Kosuke Takatomi, 2023. "Price Markups and Wage Setting Behavior of Japanese Firms," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    5. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    6. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
    7. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    8. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
    9. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache, 2021. "Domestic and Global Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Expectile Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 982-1001, August.
    10. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    11. Myeongwan Kim, 2020. "The Price Effect of Trade: Evidence of the China Shock and Canadian Consumer Prices," CSLS Research Reports 2020-02, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    12. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," NBER Working Papers 28339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Karol Szafranek & Aleksandra Hałka, 2019. "Determinants of Low Inflation in an Emerging, Small Open Economy through the Lens of Aggregated and Disaggregated Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 3094-3111, October.
    14. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 191-230, March.
    15. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    16. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    17. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
    18. Raphael Auer & Bruce Muneaki Iwadate & Andreas Schrimpf & Alexander F. Wagner, 2022. "Global production linkages and stock market co-movement," BIS Working Papers 1003, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/67p3ersi9g8r7rictf5hklkqcq is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Cigna, Simone & Gunnella, Vanessa & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    21. Benoit Mojon & Xavier Ragot, 2018. "The labor supply of baby-boomers and low-flation," Working Papers hal-03444399, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation and prices; Recent economic and financial developments;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.