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Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Ghironi
  • Galip Kemal Ozhan

Abstract

We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). We identify the trade-offs faced in navigating between external balance and price stability. The interest rate uncertainty policy discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI inflows under imperfect exchange rate passthrough. We further investigate new channels under different assumptions about the irreversibility of FDI, the currency of export invoicing, risk aversion of outside agents, and effective lower bound in the rest of the world. Under every scenario, uncertainty policy is inflationary.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Ghironi & Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2020. "Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool," Staff Working Papers 20-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Moro, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2023. "The green sin: How exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," CFS Working Paper Series 715, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Rendahl, Pontus & Freund, Lukas B., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2021. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Discussion Papers 49/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Magdalene Williams & Ahmad Abu Alrub & Mehmet Aga, 2022. "Ecological Footprint, Economic Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa: Evidence From Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    6. Imura, Yuko & Shukayev, Malik, 2019. "The extensive margin of trade and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 417-441.
    7. Kodongo, Odongo & Mukoki, Paul & Ojah, Kalu, 2023. "Bond market development and infrastructure-gap reduction: The case of Sub-saharan Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial markets; Monetary policy framework; Uncertainty and monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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