International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia
AbstractThis paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. We run forecasting regressions of realized excess returns on measures of net purchases of treasuries by both foreign official and private agents. We find a clear distinction in the effects of flows on excess returns. Official flows, with a negative and non-linear effect, appear similar to relative supply shocks; private net purchases, with a positive and linear effect, resemble flows that absorb excess supply and are thus compensated in equilibrium for this service, similar to the role of arbitrageurs in preferred-habitat models of the term structure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 10-14.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2010-07-03 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2010-07-03 (International Finance)
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