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The International Experience with Negative Policy Rates

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  • Harriet Jackson

Abstract

A key issue in the renewal of the inflation-control agreement is the question of the appropriate level of the inflation target. Many observers have raised concerns that with the reduction in the neutral rate, and the experience of the recent financial crisis, the effective lower bound (ELB) is more likely to be binding in the future if inflation targets remain at 2 per cent. This has led some to argue that the inflation target should be raised to reduce the incidence of ELB episodes. Much of this debate has assumed that the ELB is close to, but not below, zero. Recently, however, a number of central banks have introduced negative policy interest rates. This paper outlines the concerns associated with negative interest rates, provides an overview of the international experience so far with negative policy rates and sets out some general observations based on this experience. It then discusses how low policy interest rates might be able to go in these economies, and offers some considerations for the renewal of the inflation-control agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Harriet Jackson, 2015. "The International Experience with Negative Policy Rates," Discussion Papers 15-13, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:15-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evolving Practices, Their Effects and Potential Costs," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Spring), pages 1-15.
    2. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Spring), pages 13-25.
    3. Schmiedel, Heiko & Kostova, Gergana & Ruttenberg, Wiebe, 2012. "The social and private costs of retail payment instruments: a European perspective," Occasional Paper Series 137, European Central Bank.
    4. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    6. Schmiedel, Heiko & Kostova, Gergana & Ruttenberg, Wiebe, 2012. "The social and private costs of retail payment instruments: a European perspective," Occasional Paper Series 137, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How low can they go?
      by Stephen G. Cecchetti in Huffington Post Business on 2016-04-04 16:38:55
    2. How Low Can They Go?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-02-29 19:02:33

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. Demiralp, Selva & Eisenschmidt, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Maria Cristina Recchioni & Yu Sun & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2017. "Can negative interest rates really affect option pricing? Empirical evidence from an explicitly solvable stochastic volatility model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1257-1275, August.
    4. Takayasu Ito, 2017. "Do monetary policy expectations influence transmission mechanism of Danish interbank market under the negative interest rate policy?," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 223-234.
    5. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2022. "A reconsideration of money growth rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Megumu Kinugawa, 2019. "The unconventional monetary policy of the Bank of Japan during the period 2013–2018: comments and views on Shirai," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 347-358, August.
    7. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    8. Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "Negative interest rates, capital flows and exchange rates," ECON - Working Papers 351, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.
    12. Thomas Scheiber & Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Caroline Stern, 2016. "The development of bank profitability in Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland during a period of ultra-low and negative interest rates," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-28.
    13. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 25416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Anand, Abhishek & Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2019. "Impact of Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian markets: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 99426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    16. Katrin Assenmacher & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money," IMF Working Papers 2018/191, International Monetary Fund.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4becfeb5av97abu32kpfiu3srd is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Riccardo Bramante & Gimmi Dallago & Silvia Facchinetti, 2022. "Black’s model in a negative interest rate environment, with application to OTC derivatives," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 25-39, January.
    19. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2016. "Negative interest rates: incentive or hindrance for the banking system?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459162, HAL.
    20. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2017. "Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 24039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Miroslav Titze, 2016. "Menová politika záporných úrokových sadzieb v eurozóne a Japonsku [Monetary Policy of Negative Interest Rates in Eurozone and Japan]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(8), pages 953-972.
    22. Christian Pfister, Natacha Valla, 2018. "‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis," Working papers 680, Banque de France.
    23. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:8-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Financial markets; International topics; Monetary policy framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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