Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Zykluskonforme Krise oder Strukturbruch? - Zeitreiheneigenschaften des deutschen Werbemarktes

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

The current crisis of the media industry is a consequence of poor revenues from the advertising market. Actually, advertising revenues are contributing more than 60% to the total revenues of German mass media, thus dominating the economic performance of media firms. This empirical contribution seeks to understand the cyclical behavior pattern of the advertising market and to test if the recent slump in advertising demand follows this cyclical pattern. In a first step, spectral analysis is used to identify potential cycle lengths. In a second step, the explanatory power of cycles for advertising demand is evaluated by inserting the most important cycle lengths into a regression model. All estimations are based on yearly data of the German advertising market from 1960 to 2003, differentiated by five types of media. The results underline a strong influence of overlapping cycles for the advertising market, with advertising in magazines being the only exception. There is no statistical support for the hypothesis of a structural break during the recent slump in advertising demand.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut/paper/258.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 258.

as in new window
Length: pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Universitaetsstrasse 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany
Phone: +49 821 598 4060
Fax: +49 821 598 4217
Email:
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Advertising; Media; Spectral Analysis; Cycle; Structural Break; Forecast;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jacky Fayolle & Guilhem Bentoglio & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Sciences Po publications N°2002-3, Sciences Po.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Albrecht Bossert).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.