Min-max regret versus gross margin maximization in arable sector modeling
Abstract"A sector model presented in this article, uses about 200 representative French cereal-oriented farms to estimate policy impacts by means of mathematical modeling. Usually, such models suppose that farmers intend to maximize expected gross margin. This rationality hypothesis however seems hardly justifiable, especially these days, when gross margin variability due to European Common Agricultural Policy changes may become significant. Increasing uncertainty introduces bounded rationality to the decision problem so that crop gross margins may be better approximated by interval rather than by expected (precise) values. The initial LP problem is specified as an “Interval Linear Programming (ILP)”. We assume that farmers tend to decide upon their surface allocation prudently in order to get through with minimum loss, which is precisely the rationale underlying the minimization of maximum regret decision criterion. Recent advances in operations research, namely Mausser and Laguna algorithms, are exploited to implement the min-max regret criterion to arable agriculture ILP. The validation against observed crop mix proved that as uncertainty increases about 40% of the farmers adopt the min-max regret decision rule instead of the gross margin maximization."
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2009-01.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Interval Linear Programming; Min-Max Regret; Common Agricultural Policy; Arable cropping; France;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
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- Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmon, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain, European Association of Agricultural Economists 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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