IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2209.10334.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Co-occurrence, Trade Flow Decomposition, and Conditional Order Imbalance in Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yutong Lu
  • Gesine Reinert
  • Mihai Cucuringu

Abstract

The time proximity of high-frequency trades can contain a salient signal. In this paper, we propose a method to classify every trade, based on its proximity with other trades in the market within a short period of time, into five types. By means of a suitably defined normalized order imbalance associated to each type of trade, which we denote as conditional order imbalance (COI), we investigate the price impact of the decomposed trade flows. Our empirical findings indicate strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs. In terms of predictability, we document that associations with future returns are positive for COIs of trades which are isolated from trades of stocks other than themselves, and negative otherwise. Furthermore, trading strategies which we develop using COIs achieve conspicuous returns and Sharpe ratios, in an extensive experimental setup on a universe of 457 stocks using daily data for a period of four years.

Suggested Citation

  • Yutong Lu & Gesine Reinert & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "Trade Co-occurrence, Trade Flow Decomposition, and Conditional Order Imbalance in Equity Markets," Papers 2209.10334, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.10334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10334
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Goyal, Amit & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2016. "Buyers versus Sellers: Who Initiates Trades, and When?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1467-1490, October.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Albert S. Kyle & Hui Ou-Yang & Bin Wei, 2011. "A Model of Portfolio Delegation and Strategic Trading," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3778-3812.
    5. Zhang, Ting & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Order imbalances and market efficiency: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 458-467.
    6. Chakravarty, Sugato & Jain, Pankaj & Upson, James & Wood, Robert, 2012. "Clean Sweep: Informed Trading through Intermarket Sweep Orders," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 415-435, April.
    7. Liyan Yang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2020. "Back-Running: Seeking and Hiding Fundamental Information in Order Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1484-1533.
    8. Yi Tang & Yilu Zhou & Marshall Hong, 2019. "News Co-Occurrences, Stock Return Correlations, and Portfolio Construction Implications," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Bailey, Warren & Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan Leung & Wang, Fenghua, 2009. "Stock returns, order imbalances, and commonality: Evidence on individual, institutional, and proprietary investors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 9-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yanci Zhang & Yutong Lu & Haitao Mao & Jiawei Huang & Cien Zhang & Xinyi Li & Rui Dai, 2023. "Company Competition Graph," Papers 2304.00323, arXiv.org.
    2. Yutong Lu & Gesine Reinert & Mihai Cucuringu, 2023. "Co-trading networks for modeling dynamic interdependency structures and estimating high-dimensional covariances in US equity markets," Papers 2302.09382, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Carlo A. Favero & Alessandro Melone, 2019. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor Models," Working Papers 651, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2022. "Momentum-Managed Equity Factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Daniel Celeny & Loic Mar'echal, 2024. "Cyber risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Papers 2402.04775, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    6. Ting Zhang & George J. Jiang & Wei‐Xing Zhou, 2021. "Order imbalance and stock returns: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 2809-2836, June.
    7. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.
    8. Theresa Kuchler & Yan Li & Lin Peng & Johannes Stroebel & Dexin Zhou, 2022. "Social Proximity to Capital: Implications for Investors and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(6), pages 2743-2789.
    9. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.
    10. Ding Du, 2018. "The pricing of common exchange rate factors in the U.S. equity market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 775-798, April.
    11. Gkionis, Konstantinos & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George & Stilger, Przemyslaw S., 2021. "Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Meng, Jia & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2022. "Corporate Environmental Information Disclosure and Investor Response: Empirical Evidence from China's Capital Market," FEEM Working Papers 317842, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. Cao, Zhiqi & Lv, Dayong & Sun, Zhenzhen, 2021. "Stock price manipulation, short-sale constraints, and breadth-return relationship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Patrick Gagliardini & Diego Ronchetti, 2020. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models by the Conditional Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 333-394.
    15. Xiaojun Chu & Jianying Qiu, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns using first half an hour order imbalance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3236-3245, July.
    16. François-Éric Racicot & William F Rentz & David Tessier & Raymond Théoret, 2019. "The conditional Fama-French model and endogenous illiquidity: A robust instrumental variables test," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-26, September.
    17. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2021. "Momentum-managed equity factors," SAFE Working Paper Series 317, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    18. Blanco, Ivan & De Jesus, Miguel & Remesal, Alvaro, 2023. "Overlapping momentum portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    19. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Working Papers unige:125031, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    20. Chaderina, Maria & Weiss, Patrick & Zechner, Josef, 2022. "The maturity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 670-694.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.10334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.