IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2111.08338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simulating long-term impacts of mortality shocks: learning from the cholera pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Nicole El Karoui
  • Kaouther Hadji
  • Sarah Kaakai

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. We adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic could impact future mortality rates. In the first of part the paper, we study the several cholera epidemics in France and in England starting from the 1830s, and their impact on the major development of public health at the end of the nineteenth century. In the second part, we present the mathematical modeling of stochastic Individual-Based models. Using the R package IBMPopSim, this flexible framework is then applied to simulate the long-term impact of a mortality shock, using a toy model where nonlinear population compositional changes affect future mortality rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole El Karoui & Kaouther Hadji & Sarah Kaakai, 2021. "Simulating long-term impacts of mortality shocks: learning from the cholera pandemic," Papers 2111.08338, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2111.08338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2111.08338
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & Dara Lee Luca, 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future," PGDA Working Papers 13016, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    3. John Bongaarts, 2014. "Trends in Causes of Death in Low-Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 189-212, June.
    4. David Cutler & Grant Miller, 2005. "The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Kaakaï, Sarah & Labit Hardy, Héloïse & Arnold, Séverine & El Karoui, Nicole, 2019. "How can a cause-of-death reduction be compensated for by the population heterogeneity? A dynamic approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 16-37.
    6. Andrés Villegas & Steven Haberman, 2014. "On the Modeling and Forecasting of Socioeconomic Mortality Differentials: An Application to Deprivation and Mortality in England," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 168-193.
    7. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    8. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kaakai, Sarah & El Karoui, Nicole, 2023. "Birth Death Swap population in random environment and aggregation with two timescales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-248.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James J. Feigenbaum & Christopher Muller & Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2019. "Regional and Racial Inequality in Infectious Disease Mortality in U.S. Cities, 1900–1948," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1371-1388, August.
    2. Keya Sengupta, 2016. "Water and health for sustainable development," African Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 66-101.
    3. Aline Bütikofer & René Karadakic & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2021. "Income Inequality and Mortality: A Norwegian Perspective," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(1), pages 193-221, March.
    4. Delaney, Liam & McGovern, Mark & Smith, James P., 2011. "From Angela's ashes to the Celtic tiger: Early life conditions and adult health in Ireland," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-10, January.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton, 2014. "How have Europeans grown so tall?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 349-372.
    6. Lionel Kesztenbaum & Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, 2014. "Income versus Sanitation; Mortality Decline in Paris, 1880-1914," PSE Working Papers halshs-01018594, HAL.
    7. Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán, 2020. "Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 730-757, August.
    8. David Zetland & Bene Colenbrander, 2018. "Water Civilization: The Evolution of the Dutch Drinking Water Sector," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-36, July.
    9. Sonia Bhalotra, 2007. "Spending to save? State health expenditure and infant mortality in India," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(9), pages 911-928, September.
    10. Adolfo Meisel-Roca & Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2018. "Más de cien años de avances en el nivel de vida: El caso de Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 46, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Daniel Gallardo-Albarrán, 2024. "The Global Sanitary Revolution in Historical Perspective," Working Papers 0247, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    12. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Peter Egedesø Madsen, 2016. "Information and Disease Prevention: Tuberculosis Dispensaries," Discussion Papers 16-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    14. Stefan Bauernschuster & Anastasia Driva & Erik Hornung, 2020. "Bismarck’s Health Insurance and the Mortality Decline [Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2561-2607.
    15. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2015. "World Human Development: 1870–2007," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 220-247, June.
    16. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    17. Ivana Pavlić & Katija Vojvodić & Barbara Puh, 2020. "Consumer Segmentation in Food Retailing in Croatia: A Latent Class Analysis," Tržište/Market, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 32(SI), pages 9-29.
    18. Dahl, Christian M. & Hansen, Casper W. & Jensen, Peter S. & Karlsson, Martin & Kühnle, Daniel, 2023. "School Closures, Mortality, and Human Capital: Evidence from the Universe of Closures during the 1918 Pandemic in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 16592, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Peter Juul Egedesø & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2020. "Preventing the White Death: Tuberculosis Dispensaries," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(629), pages 1288-1316.
    20. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren, 2018. "Explaining declines in US rural mortality, 1910–1933: The role of county health departments," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 42-72.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2111.08338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.