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Multilevel Monte Carlo with Numerical Smoothing for Robust and Efficient Computation of Probabilities and Densities

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  • Christian Bayer
  • Chiheb Ben Hammouda
  • Raul Tempone

Abstract

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is highly efficient for estimating expectations of a functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). However, MLMC estimators may be unstable and have a poor (noncanonical) complexity in the case of low regularity of the functional. To overcome this issue, we extend our previously introduced idea of numerical smoothing in (Quantitative Finance, 23(2), 209-227, 2023), in the context of deterministic quadrature methods to the MLMC setting. The numerical smoothing technique is based on root-finding methods combined with one-dimensional numerical integration with respect to a single well-chosen variable. This study is motivated by the computation of probabilities of events, pricing options with a discontinuous payoff, and density estimation problems for dynamics where the discretization of the underlying stochastic processes is necessary. The analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the numerical smoothing significantly improves the strong convergence, and consequently, the complexity and robustness (by making the kurtosis at deep levels bounded) of the MLMC method. In particular, we show that numerical smoothing enables recovering the MLMC complexities obtained for Lipschitz functionals due to the optimal variance decay rate when using the Euler--Maruyama scheme. For the Milstein scheme, numerical smoothing recovers the canonical MLMC complexity even for the nonsmooth integrand mentioned above. Finally, our approach efficiently estimates univariate and multivariate density functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bayer & Chiheb Ben Hammouda & Raul Tempone, 2020. "Multilevel Monte Carlo with Numerical Smoothing for Robust and Efficient Computation of Probabilities and Densities," Papers 2003.05708, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.05708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Giles & Desmond Higham & Xuerong Mao, 2009. "Analysing multi-level Monte Carlo for options with non-globally Lipschitz payoff," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 403-413, September.
    2. Christian Bayer & Markus Siebenmorgen & Raul Tempone, 2018. "Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 491-505, March.
    3. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
    4. Roger Lord & Remmert Koekkoek & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "A comparison of biased simulation schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194.
    5. Rainer Avikainen, 2009. "On irregular functionals of SDEs and the Euler scheme," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 381-401, September.
    6. Mark Broadie & Özgür Kaya, 2006. "Exact Simulation of Stochastic Volatility and Other Affine Jump Diffusion Processes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 217-231, April.
    7. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    8. Christian Kahl & Peter Jackel, 2006. "Fast strong approximation Monte Carlo schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 513-536.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali & Jonathan Spence & Aretha Teckentrup, 2021. "Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo for Probabilities," Papers 2107.09148, arXiv.org.

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