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Asymptotic Filter Behavior for High-Frequency Expert Opinions in a Market with Gaussian Drift

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Listed:
  • Abdelali Gabih
  • Hakam Kondakji
  • Ralf Wunderlich

Abstract

This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Drift estimates are based on Kalman filter techniques and described by the conditional mean and covariance matrix of the drift given the observations. We study the filter asymptotics for increasing arrival intensity of expert opinions and prove that the conditional mean is a consistent drift estimator, it converges in the mean-square sense to the hidden drift. Thus, in the limit as the arrival intensity goes to infinity investors have full information about the drift.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2018. "Asymptotic Filter Behavior for High-Frequency Expert Opinions in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1812.03453, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1812.03453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization under Partial Information with Expert Opinions: a Dynamic Programming Approach," Papers 1303.2513, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
    2. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-18.
    3. Davis, Mark & Lleo, Sébastien, 2020. "Debiased expert forecasts in continuous-time asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Lakner, Peter, 1998. "Optimal trading strategy for an investor: the case of partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 77-97, August.
    5. Jörn Sass & Dorothee Westphal & Ralf Wunderlich, 2017. "Expert Opinions And Logarithmic Utility Maximization For Multivariate Stock Returns With Gaussian Drift," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-41, June.
    6. Jorn Sass & Dorothee Westphal & Ralf Wunderlich, 2018. "Diffusion Approximations for Expert Opinions in a Financial Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1807.00568, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    7. Brendle, Simon, 2006. "Portfolio selection under incomplete information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(5), pages 701-723, May.
    8. Jörn Sass & Ulrich Haussmann, 2004. "Optimizing the terminal wealth under partial information: The drift process as a continuous time Markov chain," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 553-577, November.
    9. Katrin Schöttle & Ralf Werner & Rudi Zagst, 2010. "Comparison and robustification of Bayes and Black-Litterman models," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(3), pages 453-475, June.
    10. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Jorn Sass & Ralf Wunderlich, 2014. "Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1402.6313, arXiv.org.
    11. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Matheus R Grasselli & Lane P Hughston (ed.), Finance at Fields, chapter 11, pages 265-282, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2022. "Well Posedness of Utility Maximization Problems Under Partial Information in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 2205.08614, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2023. "Power Utility Maximization with Expert Opinions at Fixed Arrival Times in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift," Papers 2301.06847, arXiv.org.
    3. Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2023. "Portfolio Optimization in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift and Randomly Arriving Expert Opinions: Modeling and Theoretical Results," Papers 2308.02049, arXiv.org.

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