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Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization in a Market with Gaussian Drift

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelali Gabih
  • Hakam Kondakji
  • Jorn Sass
  • Ralf Wunderlich

Abstract

This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased estimate of the current state of the drift. Nevertheless, the drift can only be observed partially and the best estimate is given by the conditional expectation given the available information, i.e., by the filter. We provide the filter equations in the model with expert opinion and derive in detail properties of the conditional variance. For an investor who maximizes expected logarithmic utility of his portfolio, we derive the optimal strategy explicitly in different settings for the available information. The optimal expected utility, the value function of the control problem, depends on the conditional variance. The bounds and asymptotic results for the conditional variances are used to derive bounds and asymptotic properties for the value functions. The results are illustrated with numerical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Jorn Sass & Ralf Wunderlich, 2014. "Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1402.6313, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.6313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization under Partial Information with Expert Opinions: a Dynamic Programming Approach," Papers 1303.2513, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
    2. Lakner, Peter, 1998. "Optimal trading strategy for an investor: the case of partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 77-97, August.
    3. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Matheus R Grasselli & Lane P Hughston (ed.), Finance at Fields, chapter 11, pages 265-282, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Brendle, Simon, 2006. "Portfolio selection under incomplete information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(5), pages 701-723, May.
    5. Katrin Schöttle & Ralf Werner & Rudi Zagst, 2010. "Comparison and robustification of Bayes and Black-Litterman models," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(3), pages 453-475, June.
    6. Honda, Toshiki, 2003. "Optimal portfolio choice for unobservable and regime-switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-78, October.
    7. Lakner, Peter, 1995. "Utility maximization with partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-273, April.
    8. Jörn Sass & Ulrich Haussmann, 2004. "Optimizing the terminal wealth under partial information: The drift process as a continuous time Markov chain," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 553-577, November.
    9. Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-18.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kexin Chen & Hoi Ying Wong, 2022. "Duality in optimal consumption--investment problems with alternative data," Papers 2210.08422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    2. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2022. "Well Posedness of Utility Maximization Problems Under Partial Information in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 2205.08614, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Katia Colaneri & Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi, 2021. "The value of knowing the market price of risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 101-131, April.
    4. Jörn Sass & Dorothee Westphal & Ralf Wunderlich, 2017. "Expert Opinions And Logarithmic Utility Maximization For Multivariate Stock Returns With Gaussian Drift," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-41, June.
    5. Jorn Sass & Dorothee Westphal & Ralf Wunderlich, 2018. "Diffusion Approximations for Expert Opinions in a Financial Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1807.00568, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    6. Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2023. "Portfolio Optimization in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift and Randomly Arriving Expert Opinions: Modeling and Theoretical Results," Papers 2308.02049, arXiv.org.
    7. Davis, Mark & Lleo, Sébastien, 2020. "Debiased expert forecasts in continuous-time asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Sangmin Lee & Andrew Papanicolaou, 2016. "Pairs Trading Of Two Assets With Uncertainty In Co-Integration'S Level Of Mean Reversion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-36, December.
    9. Jorn Sass & Dorothee Westphal & Ralf Wunderlich, 2016. "Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization for Multivariate Stock Returns with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1601.08155, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    10. S'ebastien Lleo & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2023. "On the Separation of Estimation and Control in Risk-Sensitive Investment Problems under Incomplete Observation," Papers 2304.08910, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2023. "Power Utility Maximization with Expert Opinions at Fixed Arrival Times in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift," Papers 2301.06847, arXiv.org.
    12. Jorn Sass & Dorothee Westphal, 2020. "Robust Utility Maximization in a Multivariate Financial Market with Stochastic Drift," Papers 2009.14559, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    13. Mark H.A. Davis & Sébastien Lleo, 2021. "Risk‐sensitive benchmarked asset management with expert forecasts," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1162-1189, October.
    14. Abdelali Gabih & Hakam Kondakji & Ralf Wunderlich, 2018. "Asymptotic Filter Behavior for High-Frequency Expert Opinions in a Market with Gaussian Drift," Papers 1812.03453, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.

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