Expert Opinions and Logarithmic Utility Maximization in a Market with Gaussian Drift
AbstractThis paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased estimate of the current state of the drift. Nevertheless, the drift can only be observed partially and the best estimate is given by the conditional expectation given the available information, i.e., by the filter. We provide the filter equations in the model with expert opinion and derive in detail properties of the conditional variance. For an investor who maximizes expected logarithmic utility of his portfolio, we derive the optimal strategy explicitly in different settings for the available information. The optimal expected utility, the value function of the control problem, depends on the conditional variance. The bounds and asymptotic results for the conditional variances are used to derive bounds and asymptotic properties for the value functions. The results are illustrated with numerical examples.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1402.6313.
Date of creation: Feb 2014
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- R\"udiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization under Partial Information with Expert Opinions: a Dynamic Programming Approach," Papers 1303.2513, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
- Rüdiger Frey & Abdelali Gabih & Ralf Wunderlich, 2012. "Portfolio Optimization Under Partial Information With Expert Opinions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1250009-1-1.
- Honda, Toshiki, 2003. "Optimal portfolio choice for unobservable and regime-switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-78, October.
- Jörn Sass & Ulrich Haussmann, 2004. "Optimizing the terminal wealth under partial information: The drift process as a continuous time Markov chain," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 553-577, November.
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