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Mean Reverting Portfolios via Penalized OU-Likelihood Estimation

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  • Jize Zhang
  • Tim Leung
  • Aleksandr Y. Aravkin

Abstract

We study an optimization-based approach to con- struct a mean-reverting portfolio of assets. Our objectives are threefold: (1) design a portfolio that is well-represented by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with parameters estimated by maximum likelihood, (2) select portfolios with desirable characteristics of high mean reversion and low variance, and (3) select a parsimonious portfolio, i.e. find a small subset of a larger universe of assets that can be used for long and short positions. We present the full problem formulation, a specialized algorithm that exploits partial minimization, and numerical examples using both simulated and empirical price data.

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  • Jize Zhang & Tim Leung & Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, 2018. "Mean Reverting Portfolios via Penalized OU-Likelihood Estimation," Papers 1803.06460, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1803.06460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Evan Gatev & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2006. "Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 797-827.
    3. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2016. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading:Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9839.
    4. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "Optimal dynamic pairs trading of futures under a two-factor mean-reverting model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23, September.

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