IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1802.09911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discovering Bayesian Market Views for Intelligent Asset Allocation

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Z. Xing
  • Erik Cambria
  • Lorenzo Malandri
  • Carlo Vercellis

Abstract

Along with the advance of opinion mining techniques, public mood has been found to be a key element for stock market prediction. However, how market participants' behavior is affected by public mood has been rarely discussed. Consequently, there has been little progress in leveraging public mood for the asset allocation problem, which is preferred in a trusted and interpretable way. In order to address the issue of incorporating public mood analyzed from social media, we propose to formalize public mood into market views, because market views can be integrated into the modern portfolio theory. In our framework, the optimal market views will maximize returns in each period with a Bayesian asset allocation model. We train two neural models to generate the market views, and benchmark the model performance on other popular asset allocation strategies. Our experimental results suggest that the formalization of market views significantly increases the profitability (5% to 10% annually) of the simulated portfolio at a given risk level.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Z. Xing & Erik Cambria & Lorenzo Malandri & Carlo Vercellis, 2018. "Discovering Bayesian Market Views for Intelligent Asset Allocation," Papers 1802.09911, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.09911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.09911
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werner Antweiler & Murray Z. Frank, 2004. "Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1259-1294, June.
    2. Nofer, Michael & Hinz, Oliver, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market: Where is the Mood Effect?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77140, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    4. Gabriele Ranco & Darko Aleksovski & Guido Caldarelli & Miha Grčar & Igor Mozetič, 2015. "The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. S Satchell & A Scowcroft, 2000. "A demystification of the Black–Litterman model: Managing quantitative and traditional portfolio construction," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(2), pages 138-150, September.
    6. Michael Nofer & Oliver Hinz, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 57(4), pages 229-242, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akhilesh Prasad & Arumugam Seetharaman, 2021. "Importance of Machine Learning in Making Investment Decision in Stock Market," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 46(4), pages 209-222, December.
    2. Sang Il Lee & Seong Joon Yoo, 2019. "Multimodal Deep Learning for Finance: Integrating and Forecasting International Stock Markets," Papers 1903.06478, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Costola, Michele & Hinz, Oliver & Nofer, Michael & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Machine learning sentiment analysis, COVID-19 news and stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Bowden, James & Gemayel, Roland, 2022. "Sentiment and trading decisions in an ambiguous environment: A study on cryptocurrency traders," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xiong, Lu & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi & Foglia, Matteo, 2022. "Multilayer network analysis of investor sentiment and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    5. Benjamin Clapham & Michael Siering & Peter Gomber, 2021. "Popular News Are Relevant News! How Investor Attention Affects Algorithmic Decision-Making and Decision Support in Financial Markets," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 477-494, April.
    6. Milla Siikanen & Kk{e}stutis Baltakys & Juho Kanniainen & Ravi Vatrapu & Raghava Mukkamala & Abid Hussain, 2017. "Facebook drives behavior of passive households in stock markets," Papers 1709.07300, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    7. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    8. Eryka Probierz & Adam Galuszka & Katarzyna Klimczak & Karol Jedrasiak & Tomasz Wisniewski & Tomasz Dzida, 2021. "Financial Sentiment on Twitter's Community and it's Connection to Polish Stock Market Movements in Context of Behavior Modelling," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 56-65.
    9. Yılmaz, Emrah Sıtkı & Ozpolat, Aslı & Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2022. "Do Twitter Sentiments Really Effective on Energy Stocks? Evidence from Intercompany Dependency," MPRA Paper 114155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Audrino, Francesco & Sigrist, Fabio & Ballinari, Daniele, 2020. "The impact of sentiment and attention measures on stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 334-357.
    11. Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez & Francisco de Arriba-P'erez & Ana Barros-Vila & Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no, 2024. "Detection of Temporality at Discourse Level on Financial News by Combining Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning," Papers 2404.01337, arXiv.org.
    12. Thomas Renault, 2020. "Sentiment analysis and machine learning in finance: a comparison of methods and models on one million messages," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Marlene Amstad & Leonardo Gambacorta & Chao He & Dora Xia, 2021. "Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media," BIS Working Papers 917, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Sophie Cockcroft & Mark Russell, 2018. "Big Data Opportunities for Accounting and Finance Practice and Research," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 28(3), pages 323-333, September.
    15. Arcuri, Maria Cristina & Gandolfi, Gino & Russo, Ivan, 2023. "Does fake news impact stock returns? Evidence from US and EU stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.
    16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    17. Lehrer, Steven & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Social media sentiment, model uncertainty, and volatility forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Stefan Stieglitz & Christian Meske & Björn Ross & Milad Mirbabaie, 2020. "Going Back in Time to Predict the Future - The Complex Role of the Data Collection Period in Social Media Analytics," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 395-409, April.
    19. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    20. Francisco de Arriba-P'erez & Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez & Jos'e A. Regueiro-Janeiro & Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no, 2024. "Detection of financial opportunities in micro-blogging data with a stacked classification system," Papers 2404.07224, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.09911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.