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Risk-Consistent Conditional Systemic Risk Measures

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  • Hannes Hoffmann
  • Thilo Meyer-Brandis
  • Gregor Svindland

Abstract

We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional aggregation and a univariate conditional risk measure. Our studies extend known results for unconditional risk measures on finite state spaces. We argue in favor of a conditional framework on general probability spaces for assessing systemic risk. Mathematically, the problem reduces to selecting a realization of a random field with suitable properties. Moreover, our approach covers many prominent examples of systemic risk measures from the literature and used in practice.

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  • Hannes Hoffmann & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Gregor Svindland, 2016. "Risk-Consistent Conditional Systemic Risk Measures," Papers 1609.07897, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1609.07897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
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    3. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    4. Chen Chen & Garud Iyengar & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2013. "An Axiomatic Approach to Systemic Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1373-1388, June.
    5. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2008. "Risk Measures: Rationality and Diversification," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 100, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    6. Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    7. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Doldi & Marco Frittelli, 2021. "Real-Valued Systemic Risk Measures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Tobias Fissler & Jana Hlavinov'a & Birgit Rudloff, 2019. "Elicitability and Identifiability of Systemic Risk Measures," Papers 1907.01306, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    3. Dhaene, Jan & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Zhang, Yiying, 2022. "Systemic risk: Conditional distortion risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 126-145.
    4. Tobias Fissler & Yannick Hoga, 2021. "Backtesting Systemic Risk Forecasts using Multi-Objective Elicitability," Papers 2104.10673, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    5. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2019. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Papers 1909.11794, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    6. Daniel Ritter, 2019. "Mathematical Modeling of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: Managing Default Contagion and Fire Sales," Papers 1911.07313, arXiv.org.
    7. Alessandro Doldi & Marco Frittelli, 2020. "Conditional Systemic Risk Measures," Papers 2010.11515, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    8. Yu-Sin Chang, 2018. "Systemic Risk and the Dependence Structures," Papers 1809.03425, arXiv.org.
    9. Das Bikramjit & Fasen-Hartmann Vicky, 2019. "Conditional excess risk measures and multivariate regular variation," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 36(1-4), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Wang, Wei & Xu, Huifu & Ma, Tiejun, 2023. "Optimal scenario-dependent multivariate shortfall risk measure and its application in risk capital allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 322-347.
    11. Hannes Hoffmann & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Gregor Svindland, 2016. "Strongly Consistent Multivariate Conditional Risk Measures," Papers 1609.07903, arXiv.org.
    12. Francesca Biagini & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2018. "Financial asset bubbles in banking networks," Papers 1806.01728, arXiv.org.
    13. Damiano Rossello & Silvestro Lo Cascio, 2021. "A refined measure of conditional maximum drawdown," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 301-321, December.
    14. Aditya Maheshwari & Andrey Sarantsev, 2017. "Modeling Financial System with Interbank Flows, Borrowing, and Investing," Papers 1707.03542, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    15. Liebrich, Felix-Benedikt & Svindland, Gregor, 2019. "Efficient allocations under law-invariance: A unifying approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 28-45.
    16. Oliver Kley & Claudia Klüppelberg & Gesine Reinert, 2016. "Risk in a Large Claims Insurance Market with Bipartite Graph Structure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1159-1176, October.
    17. E. Kromer & L. Overbeck & K. Zilch, 2019. "Dynamic systemic risk measures for bounded discrete time processes," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 90(1), pages 77-108, August.
    18. Nils Detering & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Konstantinos Panagiotou & Daniel Ritter, 2020. "Suffocating Fire Sales," Papers 2006.08110, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    19. Ahn, Dohyun & Kim, Kyoung-Kuk & Kwon, Eunji, 2023. "Multivariate stress scenario selection in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2020. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, January.
    21. Tobias Fissler & Jana Hlavinová & Birgit Rudloff, 2021. "Elicitability and identifiability of set-valued measures of systemic risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 133-165, January.

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