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Моделирование инфляционных процессов в Казахстане на основе Новой кейнсианской кривой Филлипса // Modeling inflation processes in Kazakhstan based on the New-Keynsian Phillips curve

Author

Listed:
  • Тулеуов Олжас // Tuleuov Olzhas

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

В работе представлены результаты эмпирического оценивания различных видов новых кейнсианских кривых Филлипса для моделирования динамики инфляции в Казахстане. В частности, были оценены «стандартная» форма новой кейнсианской кривой Филлипса, ее модификация для малой открытой экономики, а также гибридная форма данной кривой, которая наряду с рациональными (впередсмотрящие (forward-looking)) инфляционными ожиданиями учитывает также и адаптивные (назадсмотрящие (backward-looking)) инфляционные ожидания. // The paper presents the results of empirical estimation of various types of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for modeling the dynamics of inflation in Kazakhstan. In particular, the “standard” form of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve, its modification for a small open economy, as well as the hybrid form of this curve, which, along with rational (forward-looking) inflationary expectations, also takes into account adaptive (backward-looking) inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Тулеуов Олжас // Tuleuov Olzhas, 2016. "Моделирование инфляционных процессов в Казахстане на основе Новой кейнсианской кривой Филлипса // Modeling inflation processes in Kazakhstan based on the New-Keynsian Phillips curve," Working Papers #2016-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:14
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    File URL: https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/9049
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; New-Keynesian Phillips curve; inflation; inflation factors; adaptive expectations; rational expectations; Kazakhstan; generalized method of moments; instrumental variables; инфляционное таргетирование; новая кейнсианская кривая Филлипса; инфляция; факторы инфляции; адаптивные ожидания; рациональные ожидания; Казахстан; обобщенный метод моментов; инструментальные переменные;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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